Monthly Commodity Report

Gold Insight​: ​

Gold News​

Gold prices pared early gains on Tuesday after touching a fresh nine-week high, with spot gold closing 0.3% lower as investors turned cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data due later this week. The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday and Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Thursday are expected to provide fresh guidance on the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data released last week. Although gold continues to benefit from its traditional role as a safehaven asset during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of higher interest rates and a relatively firm U.S. dollar continue to limit upside by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump responded to Tehran's conditions for a peace agreement by demanding compensation for those killed in wars, attacks and protests, while oil prices remained near a one-week high amid persistent tensions. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 50% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September and a 79% probability of another hike in December.

Technical Overview

GOLD :Technically, MCX Gold (5th Oct) remains in a strong uptrend as prices continue to sustain above the recent swing-high breakout, supported by rising volumes, indicating that bulls remain firmly in control. The contract is trading above its short-term 20-SMA as well as the medium-term 50- and 100-SMAs, confirming continued strength in the prevailing trend. As long as the key support zone of ₹1,51,500–₹1,49,000–₹1,48,000–₹1,44,800 remains intact, prices are expected to extend the rally towards ₹1,60,000– ₹1,60,500 in the medium term. On the momentum front, the RSI is at 69 with an upward slope, indicating sustained bullish momentum, while the MACD remains above the zero line with an expanding green histogram, suggesting further upside potential.

Silver Insight​​

Silver News

Silver prices declined 1.4% on Tuesday as investors booked profits after the recent rally and adopted a cautious stance ahead of key U.S. inflation reports that could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. The stronger U.S. dollar and expectations that interest rates could remain elevated continued to weigh on sentiment despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While silver retains support from its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, uncertainty surrounding inflation, interest rates and global economic conditions prompted traders to reduce risk exposure. Market participants will closely monitor this week's CPI and PPI data for further direction on precious metals.

Technical levels:

SILVER:Silver witnessed some profit booking following its recent sharp rally but continues to hold above key support levels, indicating that the broader bullish structure remains intact. Immediate support is placed at ₹2,32,000, while resistance is seen at ₹2,40,000. A sustained move above the resistance zone could revive bullish momentum, whereas holding above support would keep the medium-term outlook constructive.

Crude Oil Insight​

Crude oil News​

Crude oil prices extended gains for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, with Brent crude rising 1.5% and WTI advancing 1.3%, as fading optimism over a U.S.-Iran peace agreement reinforced concerns about prolonged supply disruptions in the Middle East. Iran reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States accepts its conditions for ending the conflict, while shipping data showed vessel traffic through the strategic waterway had fallen sharply from pre-war levels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration also warned that some Middle Eastern producers may struggle to restore oil production to pre-conflict levels before the end of 2027, even if trade routes normalize next year. With the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb accounting for nearly one-quarter of global oil shipments, geopolitical developments continue to be the dominant driver of energy markets. Saudi Aramco estimates that more than 2.6 billion barrels of oil supply have been disrupted since the Iran conflict began in February.

Technical levels:

CRUDE OIL:Technically, MCX Crude Oil remains in a downtrend after confirming a swing-low breakdown last week in an environment of increasing volumes, indicating continued selling pressure. Prices continue to trade below the 20-day SMA, reinforcing the prevailing bearish bias. As long as ₹8,250 acts as a strong resistance, prices are expected to drift lower towards the ₹6,700–₹6,400 zone. However, a sustained move above ₹8,300–₹8,500–₹9,300 would be required to signal a meaningful trend reversal. The RSI is at 54 with a flat slope, reflecting mixed momentum, while the MACD is approaching the zero line, suggesting the downside trend remains intact despite signs of stabilization.

Natural Gas Insight​​

Natural gas News​

Natural gas futures ended nearly unchanged on Tuesday as profit booking emerged following gains over the previous two sessions. Despite the recent recovery, the broader market outlook remains weak due to ample U.S. production, comfortable storage levels and expectations of softer demand in the coming weeks. The latest EIA storage data continued to indicate healthy inventory growth, while cooling weather forecasts have reduced near-term consumption expectations. Nevertheless, any return of extreme summer temperatures could significantly increase power-sector demand for air conditioning and provide support to prices. Robust LNG exports may also help cushion downside pressure, although the prevailing technical trend remains bearish.

Technical levels:

NATURAL GAS :Technically, MCX Natural Gas remains in a downtrend and is expected to move towards the ₹250–₹240 zone as long as resistance at ₹272–₹285–₹290 continues to cap prices. For any meaningful recovery, the contract must sustain above the ₹290 swing-high resistance, which could open the path towards ₹320–₹325, and eventually ₹345–₹350. Immediate resistance is placed in the ₹272–₹278 zone. The RSI is near 44 with an upward slope, indicating improving momentum, while the MACD remains below the zero line, suggesting that rallies are still likely to attract selling interest in the short term.

Base Metal Insight​​

Base Metal News​

Geopolitical developments remained a key overhang. Prospects for a swift Strait of Hormuz resolution dimmed as talks hit a fresh impasse; Iran reiterated that the waterway would stay constrained unless the US accepted conditions including sanctions relief and other demands. New attacks on shipping were reported, while US President Trump continued to assert American naval control and mine-sweeping of the strait. These mixed signals sustained risk premiums for energy and aluminium supply chains from the region.

Technical levels:

COPPER:Technically, Copper remains in a strong uptrend as long as the support zone of ₹1,360–₹1,345–₹1,310 holds. Prices are expected to advance towards the ₹1,410–₹1,415 zone in the short term. Trading above the 20-day SMA reflects sustained buying interest. The RSI stands at 68 with an upward slope, indicating strong bullish momentum, while the MACD remains above the zero line with an expanding histogram, suggesting further upside potential.

ZINC: Zinc ended nearly unchanged near its all-time high but continues to maintain a strong uptrend while trading above the short-term 20-SMA. A sustained move above ₹398–₹400 could trigger the next leg of the rally, while ₹385–₹375 remains an important support zone. The RSI is at 64 with an upward slope, and the MACD remains above the zero line with a rising histogram, indicating buying interest on every dip.

ALUMINUM: Aluminium ended the session almost unchanged but continues to trade near multi-week highs after a confirmed swing breakout on the daily chart, reflecting sustained bullish momentum. As long as ₹345–₹340 holds as support, prices are expected to advance towards the ₹365–₹375 zone. The RSI is at 65 with an upward slope, confirming positive momentum, while the MACD remains above the zero line, supporting the ongoing bullish trend.

Nickel : Nickel continues to trade within a narrow range of ₹1,620–₹1,670, reflecting market indecision. A decisive breakout above ₹1,670 could trigger fresh buying momentum, while a breakdown below ₹1,620 may lead to renewed selling pressure. Traders should watch these levels closely for confirmation of the next directional move.

Electricity Futures: Electricity Futures witnessed buying interest after testing the ₹4,500 support zone, indicating that buyers are emerging at lower levels. Immediate resistance is placed at ₹4,850, while ₹4,500 remains the key support. A sustained move above resistance could strengthen the short-term recovery.

Bullion Index (Bulldex) : Bulldex has given a strong breakout after consolidating within a range for nearly a month, indicating improving bullish momentum. The next major resistance is placed at ₹36,000, while immediate support is seen at ₹34,000.

Forex Insight​

Dollar Index News​​

The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded near 99.80–99.88 levels overnight, remaining relatively soft and rangebound. The greenback showed little directional force amid the geopolitical headlines and mixed risk sentiment, continuing to provide a supportive backdrop for dollar-priced commodities.

Technical levels:

DXY: The Dollar Index (DXY) has started to stabilize after last week's sharp decline and is finding support near the 99.50 level, which remains a key demand zone. Immediate resistance is placed at 100.50. A sustained move above this level could improve the short-term outlook, while failure to hold 99.50 may revive downside pressure.

Forex Insight​

USDINR News​

USDINR traded slightly weaker overnight in the 95.30–95.45 zone (around 95.38–95.40). The rupee faced pressure from elevated crude prices linked to the unresolved Hormuz situation and a cautious risk tone, alongside importer demand. Support came from reported RBI intervention (state-run banks selling dollars) and solid forex reserves, which helped contain the downside and keep the pair range-bound. Equity market softness added mild headwinds at times. Focus remains on oil price reactions to any diplomatic progress or further incidents, FII flows, and continued central bank presence.

Technical levels:

​USDINR : Technically, day trend may remain BULLISH in USDINR after approaching an important support zone of 95 level the next support level is placed at 94.6 level and resistance at 96.7 if that breaks then the next resistance will at 97