Monthly Commodity Report

Gold Insight​: ​

Gold News​

Gold gained almost 1%, supported by continued safe-haven buying on dips, along with a technical breakout that helped reverse the previous sell-off following strong U.S. job reports. Earlier, the metal had witnessed sharp two-day declines on January 30 and February 2 after U.S. President Donald Trump announced his pick for the Fed chair. Despite this volatility, gold has still gained more than 17% this year, building on last year’s record rally amid rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty as well as increased central bank purchases.

U.S. job growth accelerated in January and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, signaling labor market resilience that may allow the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady while monitoring inflation. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised 48,000 rise in December, exceeding Reuters’ forecast of 70,000 jobs. However, revisions showed the economy added only 181,000 jobs in 2025 versus the previously estimated 584,000, significantly lower than the 1.459 million jobs added in 2024.

Indian investors increased allocations to gold ETFs in January amid rising geopolitical risks, with inflows surpassing equity funds for the first time. Net inflows into Indian equity mutual funds fell 14.35% month-on-month to 240.29 billion rupees ($2.65 billion), while gold ETF inflows more than doubled to 240.4 billion rupees, according to AMFI data.

Technical Overview

GOLD : Technically, MCX gold prices attempted to break the previous swing high but failed to sustain above that level. However, prices continue to trade above all three major SMAs, indicating sustained buying interest in the market. RSI near the 60 mark suggests that if it holds at current levels, some rebound could be expected. While MACD remains above the zero line, indicating underlying strength, the histogram suggests bears currently have a slight upper hand.

Silver Insight​​

Silver News

Silver gained over 4%, supported by safe-haven buying on price dips and a technical breakout that helped erase the earlier sell-off triggered after strong U.S. job data. The broader precious metals complex remained volatile amid shifting expectations around U.S. monetary policy, geopolitical developments, and investor positioning.

Improved risk sentiment following strong labor market data, combined with continued investment demand and technical support levels, contributed to the rebound in silver prices. The move also reflects continued interest in precious metals as a hedge amid economic uncertainty and fluctuating interest rate expectations.

Technical levels:

SILVER: Technically, silver appears to be forming a double-bottom pattern, suggesting potential base formation at lower levels. However, prices are facing resistance near the pending window zone, which is currently limiting upside momentum. Silver has support at 230000 and resistance at 276000.

Crude Oil Insight​

Crude oil News​

Oil prices gained nearly 1% amid concerns about escalating tensions between Iran and the U.S., as both sides prepared to resume negotiations. Supporting prices further, U.S. job growth accelerated in January and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, signaling economic strength that could sustain energy demand.

However, gains were limited after U.S. crude inventories rose by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration, far exceeding analysts’ expectations of a 793,000-barrel increase.

In the broader market, OPEC kept its supply-demand outlook largely unchanged but noted that global demand for its crude could decline by 400,000 barrels per day in the second quarter compared with the first. Russian oil production also edged down around 0.6% in January from December.

Technical levels:

CRUDE OIL:Technically, crude oil has been trading within the range of the last eight sessions and is attempting an upside breakout. RSI near the 55 mark, with a mild downward slope, indicates cautious momentum, while MACD just turning positive reflects mixed technical signals in the near term.

Natural Gas Insight​​

Natural gas News​

U.S. natural gas futures ended almost flat as the market balanced mixed supply-demand signals. A large withdrawal from storage indicated tightening supply, which typically supports prices. However, warmer weather forecasts reduced expected heating demand, offsetting bullish factors.

These conflicting dynamics kept prices largely stable, as neither supply tightening nor demand weakness provided a clear directional bias for the market.

Technical levels:

NATURAL GAS :Technically, natural gas remains in a downtrend, with a fresh swing breakdown observed toward a major support zone. A break below the January and August last-year support zones could accelerate selling pressure. RSI near the 42 mark with a downward slope indicates persistent selling momentum, while MACD below the zero line with the signal line below suggests further weakness in the coming sessions.

Base Metal Insight​​

Base Metal News​

January CPI and PPI data showed a mild recovery in price levels, with improving industrial demand offering some macro support to aluminum prices. Strong U.S. payroll data eased growth concerns but delayed rate-cut expectations, while renewed calls for cuts improved overall sentiment. However, aluminum fundamentals remain weak due to rising supply from new projects and seasonal demand slowdown ahead of holidays, leading to increasing inventories that are likely to weigh on prices in the near term.

Technical levels:

COPPER:Copper has been trading range-bound with a downside bias amid rising inventory levels and demand concerns. Technically, the bias remains on the lower side as prices have struggled to hold gains. RSI around 49 with a downward slope and MACD approaching the zero line indicate potential weakness ahead.

ZINC: Technically, zinc is trading in a narrow range with small candles while attempting an upside breakout. RSI approaching the 60 mark suggests improving momentum; if sustained, gains may accelerate, supported by MACD holding above the zero line.

ALUMINUM: Aluminum has been trading in a narrow range over the past few sessions. RSI near the 52 mark with a flat slope indicates neutral momentum, while MACD above the zero line but turning downward suggests cautious trading sentiment in the near term.

Nickel : Technically, nickel appears to be forming a base near the 0.618 Fibonacci golden ratio and is attempting to break out of the prevailing range. Immediate support is placed at 1483, while resistance is seen at 1630.

Electricity Futures: Technically, electricity futures, after approaching a key support level, appear to be forming a double-bottom pattern. RSI is showing bullish divergence, indicating potential strengthening momentum. Support is placed at 3236, while resistance is seen at 3680.

Forex Insight​

Dollar Index News​​

The dollar index strengthened modestly after stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts, supporting the greenback against major currencies including the euro and Swiss franc, while overall sentiment toward the dollar improved on signs of resilient U.S. economic momentum.

Technical levels:

DOLLAR INDEX : The DXY, after a sharp fall at the beginning of the week, is currently stabilizing and formed a doji candle in the previous session, indicating indecision. RSI near the 40 level suggests cautious momentum. Immediate support is placed at 95.5, while resistance is seen at 98.

Forex Insight​

USDINR News​

The Indian rupee ended slightly lower on Wednesday as dollar demand from importer banks and firmer crude oil prices weighed on the currency, though expected capital inflows and recovery in domestic equities helped limit sharper losses, with the February futures contract slipping 10 paise to close at 90.72 after trading between 90.50 and 90.81.

Technical levels:

​USDINR :Technically, day trend may remain BEARISH in USDINR after approaching an important support zone of 90.10 level the next support level is placed at 89.40 level and resistance at 91 if that breaks then the next resistance will at 91.70